Daily Edition · Page 6

THE DAILY INDEX

Technology, AI, software, security, crypto and business

MARKETS & BUSINESS

TLDR Crypto

GLOBAL ETP FLOWS NEAR 2024 RECORD AS BITCOIN LOSES SHARE

CoinShares reports $47.2 billion of inflows into crypto ETPs in 2025, just 3% shy of 2024's record. This was largely driven by a 35% pullback from Bitcoin funds to $26.9 billion while investors rotated $12.7 billion into ETH (up 138%), $3.7 billion into XRP, and $3.6 billion into Solana. The US is still dominant with $42.5 billion of inflows, Europe and Canada are increasing their participation, and there's a strong start to 2026, showing weekly flows around $582 million.

ETHEREUM'S BLOCKCHAIN TRILEMMA SOLUTION

Ethereum has achieved a breakthrough combination of decentralization, consensus, and high bandwidth through PeerDAS (live on mainnet) and ZKEVMs (production-quality performance, pending final safety work). This solves a fundamental trilemma in decentralized networks, representing the culmination of 10 years of research. The Ethereum roadmap calls for gas limit increases and first ZKEVM node deployments in 2026, with ZKEVMs becoming the primary block validation method by 2027-2030.

THE DOWNFALL OF TGES IN 2025

84.7% of 118 major 2025 TGEs now trade below launch valuations, with median FDV collapsing 71% and median MC down 67%. High-profile projects like Berachain, Nillion, and Mira suffered 90%+ drawdowns within months. The VC-driven “low float, high FDV” model created pump-and-dump schemes where teams raised at $20M-$50M seed rounds, listed at $1B+ FDVs, and dumped on retail. The 15.3% survivors shared three traits: organic demand in sectors like RWA (185% YTD ROI), payments, and restaking; reasonable entry valuations under $200M FDV; and institutional alignment as infrastructure layers, stablecoin issuers, and L2s with consistent transaction fees.

OPEN BANKING VS. CARD PAYMENTS: CAN PISPS DISRUPT THE CARD STACK?

Traditional card payments rely on a complex four-party model that routes transactions through acquirers, card schemes, and issuers, with fees distributed across each layer. Open banking proposes a simpler flow, where Payment Initiation Service Providers (PISPs) can initiate payments directly from a user's bank account with consent. While this could bypass card schemes and reshape the payment value chain, card networks still provide large-scale clearing and settlement, meaning open banking payments may ultimately replicate similar batch-settlement dynamics rather than fully replacing cards.

2026 PREDICTIONS

DeFi TVL will surpass 2025's $101B peak while Solana validator count drops to ~500, and Ethereum scales mainnet but won't meaningfully bring users home from L2s, with at least 3 L2s shutting down due to no revenue. The stablecoin landscape will shift as USDT/USDC dominance falls below 70% with boutique offerings gaining share, and Polymarket will announce its own chain while Hyperliquid reclaims 50% OI dominance. Market structure will evolve with P/E ratios becoming accepted valuation metrics, exposing blockchain tokens as overvalued, as value shifts toward applications.

CREATOR COINS AND THE TIMELINE PROBLEM

The Base app creator coins debate mirrors a familiar pattern: foundations push new user acquisition metas that fracture communities when OGs feel value isn't flowing to their projects. The core insight is that creator coins solve the right problem (turning attention into assets) but in the wrong container – timelines reward loudness and engagement farming rather than signal. Base could pivot from a creator-centric to a topic-centric model, essentially building a “Bloomberg Terminal for culture” that organizes around trends rather than individual creators.

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