THE DOWNFALL OF TGES IN 2025

Summary from the TLDR Crypto newsletter

84.7% of 118 major 2025 TGEs now trade below launch valuations, with median FDV collapsing 71% and median MC down 67%. High-profile projects like Berachain, Nillion, and Mira suffered 90%+ drawdowns within months. The VC-driven “low float, high FDV” model created pump-and-dump schemes where teams raised at $20M-$50M seed rounds, listed at $1B+ FDVs, and dumped on retail. The 15.3% survivors shared three traits: organic demand in sectors like RWA (185% YTD ROI), payments, and restaking; reasonable entry valuations under $200M FDV; and institutional alignment as infrastructure layers, stablecoin issuers, and L2s with consistent transaction fees.