Daily Edition · Page 13

THE DAILY INDEX

Technology, AI, software, security, crypto and business

GENERAL

TLDR Founders

RULE OF 40 IS HALF DEAD: GROWTH IS ALL THAT MATTERS, MARGINS ABOVE 25% DON'T HELP, AND CATEGORY BEATS BOTH

Software M&A is on pace for its second busiest year ever, though SpaceX's $60 billion acquisition of Cursor accounts for half the annualized deal value, and removing it drops total dollars near a decade low. If you are weighing another point of growth against another point of margin, Kroll's data answers it. Companies growing above 20% trade at 7.2x revenue versus 4.1x for 10-20% growers, and margin gains past 25% barely move the price. Category framing carries similar weight, since engineering software and HCM share a 46% Rule of 40 yet trade at 5.2x and 3.0x.

SHORT DRAMA HAS CRACKED MOBILE ACQUISITION AND EARLY MONETIZATION

Short-drama apps are 6.5% of the highest-grossing entertainment apps and 38% of the downloads. RevenueCat found 5.5% of its installs became paying customers within 35 days, against 1.6% for other entertainment apps. The reason is portable. The ad, the cliffhanger, the free episodes, and the paywall were built as one continuous experience rather than four steps owned by four different teams. Retention is where it falls apart, with 31.1% renewing after the first purchase compared with 44.3% across the broader category.

PRODUCT-MARKET FIT HAS ALWAYS BEEN A TREADMILL, BUT IT JUST GOT WAY FASTER

Product-market fit has always been a treadmill, but the AI innovation cycle is making it go at a much faster pace. Founders now need to be concerned about whether they're compounding fast enough to keep their product-market fit. Teams that compound customer usage into model performance run faster. The teams pulling ahead are building for the intelligence they expect to have in six to nine months.

ONE YEAR AS A SOLOPRENEUR

Growth Unhinged is about to pass $1M in annual revenue as a one person business, and its author published the books. More than 88,000 subscribers and roughly 700 premium ones support it with zero employees. That's rare. Most of the money is brand partnerships at 55% and consulting at 25%, with subscriptions at 10-15% and speaking at 5-10%. The fastest moving line in the acquisition mix is ChatGPT and Claude referrals, up from 6% of new subscribers in February to 15.6% in August, while 940 paid beehiiv recommendations cost $1.96 each.

TLDR IndexPage 13