Daily Edition · Page 8

THE DAILY INDEX

Technology, AI, software, security, crypto and business

HEADLINES & TRENDS

TLDR Founders

THE SAAS ROUT OF 2026 IS EVEN WORSE THAN YOU THINK

For the first time in the modern era, software stocks now trade at a discount to the S&P 500. The iShares Software ETF (IGV) is down over 21% YTD and roughly 30% from its September 2025 peak, wiping out about $2 trillion in market cap. The structural problem: AI is breaking the link between headcount growth and revenue growth. If agents replace seats rather than complement them, the per-seat recurring revenue model that justified premium software valuations could unwind entirely.

VENTURE CAPITAL HAS A STARTING LINE PROBLEM

Venture capital often favors well-networked founders who start with advantages like connections and financial runway, leaving others at a disadvantage from the start. This disparity isn't about in-room investor bias, but rather the different starting lines shaped by existing networks and resources. Underrepresented founders must proactively build credibility within these ecosystems to secure funding, despite systemic inequities.

HOW TO USE AI WITHOUT LOSING YOUR MIND

Most people are failing the basic test of whether their AI use cases are even big enough to matter. This essay splits work into execution (automate it) vs exploration (use AI as a thought partner, not an answer machine) and argues that most people should ignore 90% of new AI tools and focus on a small set of mature ones applied to their hardest problems. Good antidote to the anxiety-driven "you must use every new tool" narrative flooding tech Twitter.

ADVICE AND LESSONS FOR FOUNDERS

Online startup narratives often distort reality through selective success stories and misleading exit optics that hide weak or zero-return outcomes. Cofounder misalignment, role overlap, and shifting contribution levels create common failure modes that surface as resentment or functional redundancy. Recurring friction from legal threats, employee apathy, and relationship-driven sales increases founder workload and emotional strain.

“BIG AI", AND THE VALUE OF A BUSINESS

Over 70% of mid-market B2B distribution businesses are expected to change hands in the next decade. This monthly update from the CEO of a B2B logistics software company explores how making operations more systemized and "Amazon-good" can double a business's value before exit. He also makes the case for "one to many" distribution through channels and partnerships over traditional direct sales, arguing the old SaaS playbook is losing steam.

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