Daily Edition · Page 6

THE DAILY INDEX

Technology, AI, software, security, crypto and business

HEADLINES & TRENDS

TLDR Founders

REFLECTIONS ON THE STATE OF THE SOFTWARE AND AI MARKET

The AI market isn't the same as the Dotcom bubble of the past. The technology is still early, and demand is pulling spending forward. The software selloff is real, but it won't hit every layer equally, as each has its own moats. Across the last few technological revolutions, the companies that became durable winners were predominantly founded in years four and five of each platform shift. We are now in that window for AI.

PER TOKEN PRICING IS COMING FOR EVERY AI COMPANY

The hardest problem in AI right now isn't the model, it's the pricing. In traditional SaaS, you could underprice a seat, and it didn't matter because the marginal cost of serving another user is basically zero. Now every agent action, every "magic" feature triggers real inference costs on the backend. Price too low and you're literally paying customers to use your product. Price too high and you lose to the competitor who figured it out first. Per-token and credit-based pricing models are about to become the default because they're the only ones that align cost structure with value delivered.

THE ONLY PATH LEFT IN SOFTWARE: ACCELERATE OR DIE

Software companies have three paths right now: accelerate revenue 10%+ YoY through AI-native products, get stuck in the messy middle, or rebuild to 40-50% operating margins. Even the profitability path is deceptive. Most companies that look profitable on FCF margins are still in the messy middle once you account for stock-based compensation. The only real option is to accelerate. If you're not rewriting your product around AI, you're choosing a slow death.

TLDR IndexPage 6