Daily Edition · Page 4

THE DAILY INDEX

Technology, AI, software, security, crypto and business

Continued

TLDR AI — continued

DO MARKETS BELIEVE IN TRANSFORMATIVE AI?

Transformative technologies influence interest rates by changing growth expectations, increasing uncertainty about growth, or raising concerns about existential risk. There were economically large and statistically significant movements concentrated at longer maturities for US bond yields around major AI model releases in 2023 and 2024. These movements correspond to downward revisions in expected consumption growth and/or a reduction in the perceived probability of extreme outcomes. It appears the markets do not believe in transformative AI.

TLDR IndexPage 4