Daily Edition · Page 6

THE DAILY INDEX

Technology, AI, software, security, crypto and business

MARKETS & BUSINESS

TLDR Crypto

JAPAN'S SBI HOLDINGS TO LAUNCH YEN-PEGGED STABLECOIN

SBI Holdings partnered with Startale Group to launch a yen-denominated stablecoin in Q2 2026 with issuance handled by Shinsei Trust & Banking and circulation via licensed exchange SBI VC Trade, positioning it for global settlement and institutional adoption. The token will complement Startale's USDSC dollar stablecoin to power a 24/7 tokenized stock exchange and enable AI agent payments and tokenized asset distributions beyond everyday transactions. The project aligns with Japan's Financial Services Agency approving JPYC as the country's first yen stablecoin while supporting a joint initiative from Mizuho, MUFG, and SMBC. SBI separately partnered with Ripple to introduce RLUSD to the Japanese market in 2026.

VISA OFFERS STABLECOIN SETTLEMENT FOR US BANKS USING CIRCLE'S USDC

Visa is opening its US network to stablecoin settlement, allowing banks to settle transactions using Circle's USDC on Solana. Cross River Bank and Lead Bank are among the first adopters. The move enables 24/7 settlement, including weekends and holidays, reframing stablecoins as a back-end treasury and settlement upgrade rather than a consumer payments product. With Visa's stablecoin volumes already running at multi-billion-dollar annualized levels, instant settlement is quickly becoming a competitive necessity for banks, not an experiment.

AUTODELEVERAGING: $653 MILLION LOST TO A GREEDY HEURISTIC?

Hyperliquid and Binance's Queue ADL algorithm liquidated $653 million more trader profit than necessary to cover bad debt in a liquidation cascade on October 10. The greedy heuristic from 2015 targeted whale market makers 40+ times over 12 minutes, while risk-agnostic Pro-Rata spread losses equally without accounting for leverage differences. New research proposes Risk-Aware Pro-Rata mechanisms to reweight haircuts based on trader leverage to balance the ADL Trilemma, where no strategy simultaneously optimizes solvency, fairness, and revenue. Convex optimization shows that prior-independent strategies outperform Queue by orders of magnitude.

THE GOLDEN AGE OF CRYPTO IS OVER

Crypto mirrors poker's 2003-2014 golden age decline as simple strategies stop working. Crypto is currently at poker's 2012 inflection point, where opportunities exist but require discipline, work ethic, and edge-finding through whitepapers, thesis development, and trading logs versus easy 10x NFT mints and abundant airdrops. Retail already cycled through multiple burn-and-leave episodes rather than waiting to arrive, now entering via small-percentage Bitcoin ETF DCA allocations that support adoption without fueling speculative golden eras, while competition is intensifying, requiring constant studying and latest tool utilization, like poker's mid-2010s solver adoption. Unlike poker's zero-sum game with bleak long-term outlook, limited by player count, crypto adds real technological value with inevitable tenfold adoption growth, practical use cases, and constructive regulation, making the long-term view bright despite the easy-money golden age ending.

MOST USED CHAIN BASED ON WHAT?

Solana's TVL market share surged from 0.7% to 9.5% since 2023, while Ethereum L2s like Optimism and Arbitrum stagnated or declined. Solana's fee capture has exploded 123x from 0.17% to 22.39%, now matching Ethereum's 40% monthly share. The network has dominated 82% of blockchain transactions since January 2023 and doubled Ethereum's DEX aggregation volume while user share climbed from 6% to 28% versus Ethereum's 70% decline from 20% to 6%. While Ethereum remains the most valuable decentralized social platform for monetary applications, numerical literacy demands acknowledging that Solana leads on user count, transaction count, volume, DEX aggregation, TVL growth, and fees.

CRYPTO CARDS DON'T HAVE ANY FUTURE

Crypto cards add abstraction layers, strengthening Visa and Mastercard gatekeepers rather than replacing them, as most function as liquidity bridges, selling crypto for fiat on each transaction, with infrastructure providers like Rain enabling companies to launch branded cards without significant engineering. Non-custodial cards lock users into specific ecosystems like MetaMask on Linea or Plasma Card, creating Apple-style habit formation for natural liquidity attraction rather than mining campaigns, though they lack privacy since KYC links crypto addresses to real identities. EtherFi stands out as the only viable long-term model by collateralizing crypto for fiat loans, avoiding taxable selling events on each purchase while generating yield, positioning it as the true DeFi-TradFi intersection versus competitors capitalizing on narratives without vertical innovation.

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