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THE DAILY INDEX

Technology, AI, software, security, crypto and business

HEADLINES & LAUNCHES

TLDR AI

ANTHROPIC IS ON TRACK TO TURN A PROFIT MUCH FASTER THAN OPENAI

OpenAI forecasts that it won't turn a profit until 2030, while Anthropic expects to break even for the first time in 2027. OpenAI is also expected to burn roughly 14 times as much cash as Anthropic before turning a profit. The two most valuable AI startups are taking vastly different approaches to growth. OpenAI is investing heavily in chips and data centers. Anthropic is taking a more cautious approach, making sure that costs grow more in line with revenue.

AI DIFFUSION REPORT: WHERE AI IS MOST USED, DEVELOPED, AND BUILT

AI has reached 1.2 billion users in under three years, marking the fastest technology adoption in human history. However, the Global North's adoption rate is nearly double that of the Global South. The next 1–2 billion users may come easily, but adoption is expected to plateau afterward because the remaining ~4 billion people lack electricity or internet access. Low-resource languages create an additional barrier: half the web is in English, even though only 5% of people speak it natively.

report

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AMA WITH MOONSHOT AI, THE OPEN-SOURCE FRONTIER LAB BEHIND KIMI K2 THINKING MODEL (REDDIT THREAD)

Moonshot AI's Kimi K2 is a Mixture-of-Experts model with 32 billion activated parameters and 1 trillion total parameters. It achieves state-of-the-art performance in frontier knowledge, math, and coding among non-thinking models and also has agentic abilities. Kimi-K2-Base and Kimi-K2-Instruct were recently open sourced. This thread contains a discussion with the team at Moonshot AI.

EVERY AI APPLICATION STARTUP IS LIKELY TO BE CRUSHED BY RAPID EXPANSION OF THE FOUNDATIONAL MODEL PROVIDERS

There is now almost no time to build a company and scale it. There are two ways an AI application founder can make money: make a flash-in-the-pan app that generates a ton of cash over a short period, or make a good enough app to get acquired by one of the big players. The situation is highly unstable. The best way to play is to find an application niche in a highly specialized field with extremely unique and specific data barriers.

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