Daily Edition · Page 6

THE DAILY INDEX

Technology, AI, software, security, crypto and business

MARKETS & BUSINESS

TLDR Crypto

COINBASE URGES TREASURY TO KEEP GENIUS ACT INNOVATION-FRIENDLY

Coinbase has called on the US Treasury Department to ensure that upcoming regulations for the GENIUS Act remain faithful to congressional intent, warning against regulatory overreach that could stifle innovation and hinder America's ambition to become the “crypto capital of the world.” Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad emphasized that the rules should focus narrowly on stablecoin issuers, not on software developers, validators, or open-source protocols. Coinbase also encouraged Treasury to clarify that loyalty and rewards programs do not constitute “interest” payments prohibited under the Act and to classify payment stablecoins as cash equivalents for tax and accounting purposes.

HYPERSTITION MARKETS

Hyperstition Markets introduce prediction markets engineered for reality construction rather than passive forecasting, rewarding traders for both accurate prediction and narrative enactment. The mechanism requires traders to demonstrate actions aligned with predictions verified through smart contracts, creating Nash equilibria where rational actors maximize returns by betting on and working toward specific futures. Applications include technological development bootstrapping, cultural transformation requiring epistemological framework shifts, and collective action problems where early believers profit from manifesting self-fulfilling prophecies. Unlike traditional prediction markets aiming for unbiased information aggregation, treating futures as discovered, Hyperstition Markets explicitly engineer reflexive loops between belief, incentive, and action, treating futures as designed.

LIQUIDITY, THE LIFEBLOOD OF CRYPTO

Crypto's three primary liquidity channels – DATs, stablecoins, and ETFs – have plateaued after strong momentum through Q1 2025. Combined DATs and ETFs have grown from $40 billion to $270 billion since early 2024, while stablecoins doubled from $140 billion to $290 billion before flattening. Despite global M2 expansion and US quantitative tightening officially ending, high SOFR rates keep cash parked in T-bills yielding attractive returns, redirecting liquidity away from crypto into equity markets instead of compounding digital asset inflows. The slowdown across all three channels signals broad deceleration in fresh capital deployment rather than simple product rotation. Crypto entered a "self-funded phase" where capital rotates internally between majors and alt sectors rather than entering net new, creating PVP dynamics with short-lived rallies, narrowing breadth, and volatility spikes driven by liquidation cascades instead of sustained trends.

APPS ARE NOW OUT-EARNING BLOCKCHAINS

Leading crypto applications like Pump.fun ($724M revenue) and Hyperliquid ($667M) are now out-earning the blockchains they're built on, such as Solana ($1.3B revenue, $632M in fees). These apps trade at far lower valuations despite using most of their revenue for token buybacks and transparent cash flows, while L1s retain only a fraction of the activity-generated value. The long-standing assumption that chains capture proportional value from ecosystem growth is breaking down as onchain value accrues to applications, not infrastructure. The “L1 premium” could continue eroding unless chains find new mechanisms, like white-labeled stablecoins, to internalize more of the liquidity and fees flowing through their ecosystems.

ETHEREUM'S NEXT 5 YEARS AS THE RISK-FREE ASSET

Ethereum's future lies in proof aggregation, with L2s like ZKsync defragmenting the network and scaling it to millions of TPS, rendering alternative L1s obsolete. The Ethereum L1 remains the source of incorruptibility and neutrality, expected to reach 10,000+ TPS within three years, but still not enough for global demand. As L2s evolve into cashflow machines replacing traditional payment rails (e.g., credit cards, FX, and remittance apps), their success will flow back to Ethereum, which underpins their security. Investors should own the L2s generating yield to accumulate ETH, the risk-free asset of the EVM economy.

TLDR IndexPage 6