Daily Edition · Page 8

THE DAILY INDEX

Technology, AI, software, security, crypto and business

HEADLINES & TRENDS

TLDR Founders

2024 VC FUND PERFORMANCE

The venture capital market has changed since the 2022 boom. The median LP count for funds between $100-250M dropped nearly 50% (from 83 to 47). Remaining LPs now write larger anchor checks. Performance data shows declining returns across all vintages—funds from 2017-2020 have lower median IRRs, with the 2017 vintage falling from 16.8% in Q4 2021 to 12.0% by Q4 2024. Smaller funds show better top performance (2018 vintage funds under $10M have 4.03x TVPI at the 90th percentile versus 1.67x for funds over $100M), though many funds still struggle with distributions—half of 2018 vintage funds have yet to return any capital to investors.

THE NEW AI RISK CURVE

AI startups grow faster but fade faster too. They can reach $50M ARR quickly but might shrink in year four as their lead vanishes. Unlike past tech eras where physical infrastructure (on-premise) or engineering teams (cloud) created barriers to entry, AI tools make it easy for competitors to catch up at any point. This creates a new risk curve where impressive growth numbers no longer guarantee lasting success as technology keeps shifting under everyone's feet.

COREWEAVE'S IPO DISAPPOINTS, INFLATION COMES IN HOT

CoreWeave, an AI infrastructure provider, priced below its target range at $40 per share. It raised $1.46 billion by selling 36.5 million shares, but missed its initial $47-55 range after concerns about datacenter overcapacity dampened enthusiasm. Meanwhile, inflation ticked up with February PCE hitting 2.5% year-over-year and core PCE reaching 2.8%—both above expectations and worrying given upcoming auto tariffs.

THE PATH TO PRODUCT-MARKET FIT

Small AI startups now achieve hypergrowth without massive funding or hiring sprees. Four ingredients make this possible: intense demand (when markets pull your product because it solves urgent problems better), a repeatable unit (one customer type, one product, one process), scalable pipeline (one reliable lead source plus word-of-mouth), and compression (constantly making your customer journey 50% faster and easier). Master these elements and you can build an efficient growth machine with minimal overhead.

INSIDE FIGMA'S PRICING EVOLUTION

This post explains how to fix pricing as you add products. Figma moved from charging separately for each product to a simpler system with three seat types based on user needs. This solved a common founder challenge—how to expand your product line without creating pricing chaos. The new model (Collab, Dev, and Full seats) kept things clear for customers while enabling a 20-35% price increase for power users and driving the adoption of newer tools like Slides.

SHARED UNDERSTANDING AT SCALE

Stop drowning in team confusion with five practical fixes: cut unused "strategy layers" that nobody references, design simple formats for sharing updates, create different dashboards for different roles, accept that some teams move faster than others, and pick frameworks that show real problems instead of hiding them. Teams that follow these rules make better decisions because they see what's actually happening instead of getting lost in complicated planning documents that nobody reads.

FIRST SHAREHOLDER LETTERS

The first shareholder letter sets the tone for a company's entire public journey. Steve Jobs emphasized Pixar's focus on "pictures, not quarters," Larry Page warned Google investors about "lumpy" results from long-term bets, and Jeff Bezos declared Amazon would sacrifice "GAAP accounting" for future cash flows. These letters reveal what truly matters to founders—Jamie Dimon's demand for "the highest standards" at Bank One and Steven Rales' insistence on "simple, understandable businesses" at Danaher showed their strategic DNA before success proved them right.

THE NEW RULES OF AI STARTUP GROWTH: 5 KEY LESSONS FROM COHERE, TOGETHER AI & SALESFORCE VENTURES

AI startups are shattering traditional SaaS growth models with exponential scaling. They achieve this through "Experimental Revenue," leveraging rapid technology evolution, novel applications, and customer behavior changes. Successful AI companies are now marketing-led from inception, focusing on transforming experimental revenue into stable production use while simultaneously running multiple growth initiatives.

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