Daily Edition · Page 8

THE DAILY INDEX

Technology, AI, software, security, crypto and business

HEADLINES & TRENDS

TLDR Founders

WHAT IS A GREAT BUSINESS?

A great business fulfills consumer preferences that competitors can't, building goodwill and consumer surplus. The more preferences it serves beyond what's necessary for a transaction, the more goodwill it creates. Great businesses methodically build and release this "pressure" through pricing, not mistakes. Management's role is to grow goodwill while strategically monetizing it. Being a great business doesn't guarantee being a great investment - the latter depends on the investor's entry price and reinvestment opportunities. There's no universal formula; understanding the principles is key.

BEAT AND NO RAISE?

Despite flat estimates, software stocks saw a 6% median multiple expansion and 9% returns in 2024. Several factors could drive further multiple expansion in 2025: stabilizing macro conditions, AI revenue potential, low rate risk, and policy tailwinds. The risk leans to the upside, with more potential positives than negatives ahead. Software's "reversion to the mean" could be the next big trade, though Big Tech AI winners may still be underrated. Overall, it's an exciting time to invest in tech.

DON'T REINVENT USER PROFILING DURING ONBOARDING. THIS IS WHAT IT SHOULD LOOK LIKE

First-party data on user demographics and firmographics is crucial for personalizing experiences and analyzing the right segments. Collect it directly from users in onboarding with a 3-step flow: 1) About the user 2) About their company 3) Invite team members. Ask multiple-choice questions on intent, role, seniority, and use cases. Show the team invite to everyone, setting the admin as default. Then ask about their goals to broaden their perspective. Keep it simple, use logic, and only ask what you'll use. A 15% drop-off is worth the data.

INTEL'S DEATH AND POTENTIAL REVIVAL

In the 1980s, IBM's decision to outsource the DOS operating system to Microsoft and hardware to Intel laid the foundation for the dominance of both companies. However, the rise of mobile technology, signaled by Apple's iPhone launch in 2007, shifted the focus to efficiency, breaking Microsoft's and Intel's long-standing hold on the market as ARM and RISC architectures took precedence. Intel missed critical opportunities in the mobile space and is now facing challenges competing against TSMC's advanced manufacturing capabilities, with calls for U.S. government intervention to support Intel's foundry capabilities as a matter of national security.

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