CIRCLE FACES UP TO 20% REVENUE RISK FROM AI AGENTS, MIZUHO SAYS

Summary from the TLDR Crypto newsletter

Mizuho cut its Circle price target to $43 from $45 and kept Underperform. That implies about 46% downside from Monday's $79.84 close, which was down 7% on the day. The analysts say AI personal assistants are a “marked risk.” In their simulation, agents steer USDC holders toward higher-yielding FDIC-insured options like SoFi savings, and even crypto-only users toward other platforms. They estimate USDC's market cap could shrink by $4B to $9B and reserve revenue could fall 10% to 20% over the medium term. Only about 17% of USDC sits on Circle's platform, which pays no yield, versus 30% on Coinbase and 53% elsewhere. Under faster AI adoption, they project 2027 average USDC at $101B (from $108B), reserve revenue down 5% to $4.1B, and adjusted EBITDA down 5% to $603M.