THE ROLEX INDICATOR

Summary from the TLDR Crypto newsletter

The “Rolex Indicator” tracks luxury watch prices and shows that true speculative euphoria often arrives late in crypto cycles, when new wealth starts flashing status symbols in the real world. In 2021, watch prices only really spiked after Bitcoin's second ATH and NFT mania, then crashed alongside crypto. Today, Rolex premiums remain muted despite near-record Bitcoin highs, suggesting we're in the middle rather than at the top of the cycle. When we finally see watches selling at 2x retail and countless wrist‐shots on social media, that's likely the late‐cycle signal.