WHY TWITTER IS LYING ABOUT TOKEN LAUNCHES

Summary from the TLDR Crypto newsletter

Crypto Twitter's favorite playbook – buying engagement, launching tiny floats, touting massive VC raises, and front-loading hype – simply doesn't move prices. Analysis of 50,000 data points from 40 major 2025 token launches shows near-zero correlation between Twitter metrics, initial circulating-supply percentages, or fundraising size and post-launch returns. The one statistically significant driver is Initial Market Cap, as larger IMCs predict weaker performance. The best predictors of success are realistic launch valuations, genuine product utility, authentic ongoing communication, and strong volume retention after the initial pump.