POST 50: GOOD RESEARCH TAKES ARE NOT SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD STRATEGIC TAKES

Summary from the TLDR newsletter

Having a good research track record is evidence of good big-picture takes about AGI, but it's weak evidence. Strategic thinking requires different skills - people often conflate these skills, leading to excessive deference to researchers without evidence of whether that person is good at strategic thinking specifically. Having good strategic takes is important and researchers should spend a fair amount of time developing the skill. People should be skeptical about people's strategic takes until they have proven they have the skill to make good strategic takes.