TLDR FOUNDERS 2025-12-19

CHECK IF YOU'RE ELIGIBLE

STATE OF CONSUMER AI 2025

a16z has released a ranking of the top 100 consumer AI apps. The ecosystem is stabilizing - there were only 11 new names on the web list, compared to 17 last time. ChatGPT still leads by a wide margin, but Google's Gemini and xAI's Grok are closing the gap. The more interesting finding is what's working. Vibe coding startups Lovable and Replit both debuted on the main list. 22 of the top 50 mobile apps were developed in China, but only 3 are primarily used there. Only 9% of consumers pay for more than one AI subscription.

THE END OF INTERCHANGE

The interchange fees that make up much of the cost of the credit card system are eventually going to go away. The interchange fee model is vulnerable to disruption from stablecoins, bank-to-bank direct payments, Pay by Bank platforms, and cryptographic identity layers in ACH. It is still an open question whether stablecoins or retrofitted ACH/bank rails will win, how fraud and reversibility concerns will be addressed, and what the timeline is for meaningful interchange compression.

THE TOP REASONS I SAW CROS FLAME OUT THIS YEAR

CROs can't just be managers with playbooks. To be successful, they need to be closers who learn, leaders who show up, and executives who stay when it gets hard. They need to personally close deals and be familiar with products, as well as understand their partner channels. A good CRO visits their major teams in person because they know that culture gets built in person and trust is earned face-to-face.

THE LAWYER MOST B2B STARTUPS DON'T REALIZE THEY NEED UNTIL FAR TOO LATE

Startups that bring on contract counsel generally see their overall sales cycle reduced. Founders signing at least two enterprise contracts a quarter should consider bringing on contract counsel. It will save the startup money and often help close deals faster. Having counsel will help startups avoid ending up with terms that let customers take advantage of them or create problems later down the line, like during an acquisition.

THE 13 TACTICS BEHIND LOVABLE'S INSANE GROWTH

Lovable went from $0 to $100M ARR in 8 months with 45 employees and almost no paid acquisition. That's $2.2M revenue per employee - the industry benchmark is $200k. The playbook was running 12+ growth channels simultaneously while competitors struggled with one or two. A Product Hunt launch drove GitHub stars. GitHub credibility led to podcast invitations. The flywheel required no paid advertising to maintain.

GOWATCH

Create monitors that watch the web for you.

NOVA

Nova automates resume screening, pre-screening calls, and first-round interviews.

AMPCODE

Amp is a frontier coding agent that lets you wield the full power of leading models.

DESIGNERS OF PROBLEMS WORTH SOLVING

The best founders aren't solving obvious problems - they're designing problems worth solving. The distinction matters because finding meaningful problems may be more important than solving them. The approach involves reframing situations through expansion and elevation until the problem aligns the founder's purpose with how society and technology are changing. This lens helps identify founders who have the agency for entrepreneurship, even if their ideas seem "unfundable" by consensus standards.

SOFTWARE APPLICATIONS FACE A NEW INTERMEDIARY

Many years ago, Amazon tried to build its own device to escape Apple's control. AI companies now see personal devices as a way to escape the App Store tax and to own the user relationship. These companies don't want to live at the mercy of operating systems they do not control. Creating their own devices will allow them to own their own destiny rather than ask Cupertino for permission.

SOME THOUGHTS ON "HEAD OF NARRATIVE"

This essay explores why tech companies are suddenly paying $300k+ for "heads of storytelling" and whether it actually works. Anthropic is offering up to $400k for a "Head of GTM Narrative." The author's skepticism comes down to one thing: companies are extensions of their founders. Public perception of Anthropic is downstream of Dario, regardless of what a narrative lead says.

all free

BACKCHANNELING IS BECOMING A CRUTCH

Executives who can actually move a company aren't always universally liked - you have to talk to them before letting someone else's context make the call.

DIGITAL ADVERTISING'S "BITTER LESSON" MOMENT

Explicitly labeling an ad as 'AI-generated' or 'AI-edited' can cause CTR to plummet significantly.

I SURVIVED 2025

A founder's review of this year, having survived another year of self-employment.

VALVE: THE REVERSE APPLE

Valve created an ecosystem first before creating its own first-party hardware that leverages all that work.