TLDR FOUNDERS 2025-03-12

WHY IPOS ARE TERRIBLE INVESTMENTS

64% of software IPOs fall below day 1 closing price after 6 months. Investing equally across 55 recent software IPOs would have returned -8% after 6 months, while the broader market returned +6%. The median return from those IPOs is now -43%. Institutional investors capture the "IPO pop" (median 38% for software), but retail investors buying after this pop typically lose money.

HOW TO RAISE MONEY BY RIDING HYPE CYCLES

Hype cycles start with a catalyst event (like ChatGPT's release) that sparks investor attention, leading to high-profile fundraises that inspire more startups to align with the narrative. This creates a flywheel as VC attention—the truly limited resource—focuses on that trend. When investors believe in massive outcomes, they'll pay higher prices. Don't just fit into a trend—position yourself as causing the phase change that creates opportunity.

THE 2025 FUNDRAISING GUIDE

Fundraising requirements evolve with your startup stage. Early-stage startups must focus on vision and team, while later stages need proven profitability and governance. The median time between funding rounds has increased to 24+ months, so plan for at least 18-24 months of runway. The current "flight to quality" mindset means startups with efficient, profitable growth secure the best terms.

HOW TO MEASURE YOUR BUSINESS THE AMAZON WAY

The secret accountability ritual behind Amazon's explosive growth: the company reviews 400-500 metrics in just 60 minutes every week, using consistent formats to quickly spot changes. It focuses on "input metrics" (actions they control) rather than "output metrics" (results they can't directly change). This system transforms vague goals like "increase revenue" into specific action plans: improve conversion by speeding up the site and keeping products in stock.

GUIDE TO CREATING WINNING SOCIAL MEDIA STRATEGY

SPEAKING THINGS INTO EXISTENCE WITH AI

You can now create with just words—like making a working 3D game by describing features. However, debugging requires deeper knowledge, so your expertise still matters. AI doesn't eliminate expertise but redistributes it. Your value comes from knowing what to create, judging results, and providing feedback—not writing every line of code.

TEMPO

Build react apps 10x faster with AI

PALLETE AI (PRODUCT)

Palette AI helps designers and developers create stunning color palettes and gradients instantly with AI-powered suggestions.

REEF (PRODUCT)

Spreadsheet hack for the busy you. A data storyteller and hack that helps you analyze trends, create visualizations, and explain your findings through interactive audio conservations and texts.

HOW AI WILL TRANSFORM BROKERS INTO MARKETPLACES

Broker markets (real estate, insurance, and loans) are consolidating as AI automates transactions. When brokers use AI for market access, decision support, and price discovery, they gain marketplace-like network effects and scale. The real opportunity isn't eliminating expertise but identifying what "minimum viable knowledge" humans need while AI handles the rest.

OUR SOULS NEED PROOF OF WORK IN THE AI ERA

In our comfort-obsessed world, hard work remains essential—not for success, but for happiness. The dopamine hits from comfort and convenience ultimately make us less satisfied, while voluntary challenges build resilience. Embracing difficulty in becoming the person you want to be creates deeper satisfaction than the endless pursuit of wants that AI promises to fulfill.

A QUARTER OF STARTUPS IN YC'S CURRENT COHORT HAVE CODEBASES THAT ARE ALMOST ENTIRELY AI-GENERATED

A quarter of Y Combinator's W25 startups used AI to generate 95% of their codebases. This trend highlights the rise of "vibe coding," where developers rely on LLMs to create code while needing classical coding skills for debugging and quality checks. Startups such as Bolt.new and Magic have received significant funding, underscoring growing interest in AI-powered coding solutions.

WHAT'S UP WITH MANUS AI?

Manus is an impressive AI agent gaining attention for its ability to handle complex tasks.

FOCUS ON CONTROLLABLE INPUTS, NOT OUTPUTS

Jeff Bezos has warned founders against obsessing over outcomes they can't directly control.

STARTUP FOUNDERS ARE TURNING TO 'SEED-STRAPPING' IN A DIFFICULT FUNDING ENVIRONMENT

Founders are increasingly opting for "seed-strapping," raising a single funding round before focusing on profitability, over traditional VC funding.