TLDR FOUNDERS 2025-01-20

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DECEMBER INFLATION REPORT

Markets reacted positively to lighter-than-expected December inflation data, with the Nasdaq jumping 2.3% on the news. Core CPI came in at 3.2% YoY (vs 3.3% consensus), while Core PPI dropped to 2.4% YoY (vs 2.7% consensus). Against fears of re-accelerating inflation, the data suggests the Fed's approach is working. The report includes a detailed analysis of changing rate expectations that show how Trump's election and recent economic data have shifted market sentiment. SaaS valuations remain resilient with the overall median multiple at 6.3x and high-growth companies commanding 9.2.

THE REAL STATE OF THE VENTURE MARKET

The venture landscape faces a sobering reality, with 70% of exits happening at pre-seed and seed stages. While top-tier funds continue to raise mega-funds, the inventory of aging startups keeps building. Legendary investor Howard Marks draws parallels to the 2000 bubble, warning that "too much optimism on the new thing leads to pricing errors" - though markets appear frothy rather than completely irrational.

THE VENTURE CAPITAL UNBUNDLING

Top venture capital investors are launching their own boutique funds in record numbers, moving away from mega-funds' focus on managing ever-larger pools of capital. While established firms like a16z and General Catalyst raise increasingly massive funds, former partners like Mark Goldberg (Index), Kristina Shen (a16z), and Ethan Kurzweil (Bessemer) have started Chemistry Ventures with a clear mission to "out-hustle legacy firms distracted by scale." The industry's pursuit of "2% of the biggest number" has transformed venture capital from hands-on company building to pure asset management, creating an opening for investors who want to return to the early days of working closely with founders.

9 WAYS TO GET YOUR FIRST 50 SAAS CUSTOMERS

A tactical guide for early-stage founders mixing traditional and emerging customer acquisition channels. Rather than defaulting to expensive paid ads, it advocates for starting with network sales, warm intros, and targeted content marketing. The guide includes specific templates and processes.

HOW TO TURN WARM REFERRALS INTO A SALES ENGINE

Most B2B companies treat warm introductions as lucky breaks, but Shreesh Naik has developed a systematic process to generate them consistently. The approach uses LinkedIn Sales Navigator to map second-degree connections, asks connectors for multiple introductions at once, and builds regular weekly habits around outreach. Early adopters report transforming sporadic referrals into a predictable source of high-quality opportunities.

ALL YOUR MODELS ARE DESTROYED — THE RISE AND FUTURE FALL OF MICROSTRATEGY

MicroStrategy trades at a significant premium to its net assets. Driven by narratives of high "Bitcoin yield," which is funded mainly by new investor money, this structure resembles a Ponzi scheme, as late investors risk substantial losses when the investor pool shrinks. With management and the company treasury selling shares, the sustainability of the current trading premium is highly questionable.

STABLY

Use AI to automate and accelerate your web app testing.

AI FOLLOW-UPS BY FOLK (PRODUCT)

folk's CRM suggests the best leads to follow-up with using AI.

FENADO AI (PRODUCT)

Builds apps and websites using AI. No coding or dev team required.

OKRS FOR EVIL AND GOOD

OKRs should be used as guides rather than strict metrics, avoiding the pitfall of focusing solely on quantifiable results that may overlook broader objectives. Honeycomb emphasizes using OKRs as cues for team discussions and aligning with larger goals, without tying them directly to performance reviews. This approach keeps the focus on achieving meaningful outcomes rather than just meeting numerical targets.

$132K - $149K, HERE'S WHAT SEED-STAGE FOUNDERS PAY EARLY EMPLOYEES, BASED ON DATA

Kruze Consulting's analysis of seed-stage startups shows founders' salaries are generally lower than engineering roles, with CEOs earning $132,000 and CTOs $134,000. Senior engineers in the Bay Area can make between $180,000 and $235,000, while initial employee equity ranges from 0.5% to 4% based on Carta data. Founders typically increase their pay after raising further investment rounds.

ASK HN: PRACTICAL TIPS TO STAY PRODUCTIVE?

Timeboxing and task prioritization strategies are gaining traction among tech professionals to boost productivity and motivation. Eliminating distractions, such as social media and unessential tasks, can improve focus and efficiency. Techniques like breaking down tasks and leveraging environmental controls are recommended to combat procrastination and maintain progress on projects.

NIKITA BIER'S ONE PAGER ON HOW TO BUILD VIRAL PRODUCTS

Building viral consumer products requires a ruthless focus on demonstrating value in the first three seconds - anything longer and you've lost your audience.

5 INTERESTING LEARNINGS FROM SERVICENOW AT $11 BILLION IN ARR

Enterprise SaaS is thriving, with ServiceNow and Salesforce seeing significant stock gains this year.

HOW TO COMMUNICATE EQUITY VALUE TO EMPLOYEES

CFOs can enhance recruiting by clearly explaining equity's value, aligning it with company vision, stability, valuation mechanics, and fostering a sense of ownership.