LOWERING ODDS OF CLARITY PASSAGE TO 10%
Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn cut the CLARITY Act's 2026 passage odds to 10% after the bill missed the August recess window, citing three blockers: unresolved ethics controls for government officials' crypto involvement, community banking lobbying that eroded Republican support, and illicit finance hawks' concerns over BRCA developer protections. The Senate reconvenes September 14 and adjourns around October 2 for midterm activity, leaving a 2-3 week window that would require the bill to dominate the entire session to advance. The SEC's "Reg Crypto" exemption (a primary issuance pathway for cryptoassets) and "Innovation Exemption" (secondary trading of tokenized securities in DeFi) were both delayed again after pushback from the traditional securities industry, with Commissioner Peirce's planned November departure compressing the timeframe for the Commission to act before losing a crypto-friendly vote. Galaxy placed high confidence on total Coldcard exploit losses exceeding $112M, with no verified victim attacks after August 6 but continued exposure for holders with vulnerable seeds.