BERNSTEIN SEES ANNUAL PREDICTION MARKET VOLUMES AT $10 TRILLION BY 2035

Summary from the TLDR Crypto newsletter

Bernstein forecasts prediction market volume growing from an estimated $410 billion in 2026 to $10 trillion by 2035, compounding at ~70% annually, with financial assets like crypto, equities, and commodities rising from 12% of volume in 2025 to 49% by 2035 and overtaking sports, whose share falls from 61% to 38%. Crypto's share of Kalshi's volume jumped from under 5% in January to about 20% in August, while commodity trading grew from under $2 million in 2025 to roughly $590 million year-to-date. Kalshi now holds about 60% of industry volume, up from 35% in 2025.