$FIGR: THE MARKET MAY BE UNDERWRITING THE WRONG BUSINESS

Summary from the TLDR Crypto newsletter

Figure has transitioned from balance-sheet lender to capital-light marketplace operator on Provenance blockchain rails: partner-originated loans reached 78% of Q1 2026 volume, Figure Connect grew from $8M to $1.6B in seven quarters, and ecosystem/technology fees expanded from 5% to 28% of revenue. The pending Kiavi acquisition adds $7B in annual residential transition loan origination at roughly 40% EBITDA margins, volume that should route through the same infrastructure without requiring additional capital deployment. Despite 91% incremental EBITDA margins in 2025 and adjusted EBITDA expanding from negative 4% to 49%, FIGR trades at roughly 12x EBITDA, in line with specialty lenders rather than the Tradeweb/ICE comps the business now resembles. Thin sell-side coverage and FIGR's legacy classification as a crypto proxy have left the market pricing the old balance-sheet model rather than the fee-generating marketplace.