EXPLORING THE OUTLOOK FOR BITCOIN

Summary from the TLDR Crypto newsletter

Bitcoin ETFs have logged net $5B in outflows over 52 weeks while the DRAM memory ETF pulled $10B in a single month, quantifying the demand deficit that has pinned BTC below its 200-week EMA and around the 2021 ATH. On-chain and derivatives metrics cluster in deep-value territory: MVRV is at accumulation-zone levels, spot turnover relative to market cap sits at all-time lows, front-end implied volatility is at multi-year lows, and BTC futures basis cannot clear T-bill yield parity. The DAT supply overhang that pressured price through late 2024 and into 2025 is unwinding as treasury companies slow or reverse BTC accumulation, while long-term holders absorb supply aggressively. Recovery is a seller exhaustion event rather than a demand-led rally. Large asset manager portfolio allocations are the primary upside catalyst. DCA spot or buy cheap implied volatility via options over the coming months.