TLDR Hardware · MISCELLANEOUS

WHY COMPUTE MIGHT GET 10X MORE EXPENSIVE IN COMING YEARS

dwarkesh.com6 min read

Summary from the TLDR Hardware newsletter

GPU spot rental rates could surge 10x–15x as frontier models gain human-level software engineering capabilities. Physical GPU supply only scales ~3x annually due to fab and packaging bottlenecks, so the immense economic value of automated labor will drive inference willingness-to-pay far higher than current market spot prices.