CITADEL SECURITIES EXPECTS SURPRISE FED RATE HIKE UNDER KEVIN WARSH

Summary from the TLDR Fintech newsletter

Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points this week, arguing that a surprise move would strengthen Chair Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting credibility and signal an end to heavily telegraphed policy decisions. The firm believes persistent inflation risks, a stable labor market, and recent energy price increases could outweigh softer payroll and inflation data, even though markets currently assign only about a 40% probability to a July hike.