YOUR CHURN THRESHOLD IS A PRICING DECISION

Summary from the TLDR Founders newsletter

Churn models ship with a default 0.5 threshold. This analysis prices that default at about $86 per customer in avoidable spend, $8.6M across a 100K-subscriber base. Missing a churner costs about 13x more than over-treating a loyal customer, so the profitable threshold sits well below 0.5 and the default is quietly setting your retention budget. Library defaults across an analytics stack are business decisions nobody consciously made.