CYCLICAL EVENTS TO BOOST 2026 AD SPEND, BUT RECESSION, TARIFF CONCERNS REMAIN

Summary from the TLDR Marketing newsletter

US ad spend is projected to increase 9.5% in 2026, with $9 billion in incremental dollars tied to midterms, the Winter Olympics, and the FIFA World Cup. Social and CTV will lead channel expansion at 14.6% and 13.8% YoY as buyers prioritize scalable, measurable environments. Economic risk persists with a one-in-three chance of recession, and 90% of buyers are concerned about tariffs, though those cutting spend due to tariffs fell from 45% to 30% YoY as budgets shift toward performance media. Rising acquisition costs have reduced its strategic weight by 10 points, yet 54% still rank new customer growth as a top objective.