STATE OF CONSUMER AI 2025: PRODUCT HITS, MISSES, AND WHAT'S NEXT

Summary from the TLDR Marketing newsletter

Consumer AI is trending toward a winner-take-most dynamic, with usage and spend highly concentrated around a single assistant for most users. ChatGPT leads with an estimated 800 to 900M WAUs, a 36% DAU to MAU ratio, and 50% month 12 desktop retention, while Gemini trails in scale but is growing faster at 155% YoY desktop user growth and nearly 300% YoY growth in paid subscriptions. New standalone products have mixed results, as Sora reached 12M downloads but under 8% day 30 retention, while NotebookLM doubled web users YoY and reached 8M MAUs on mobile. The biggest opportunity ahead sits outside the major labs, as focused startups continue to reach millions of users by building dedicated consumer experiences rather than general assistants.