YES, AGI CAN HAPPEN – A COMPUTATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Summary from the TLDR AI newsletter

Current models vastly underutilize hardware: DeepSeek-V3 and Llama-4 achieve only ~20% FLOP utilization during training, and inference runs at single-digit utilization because autoregressive models are bottlenecked on loading weights from memory, not compute. Models we see today are also lagging indicators, trained on last-gen hardware that's unoptimized for the massive size of modern clusters and the latest training methods.