THE VOLUME MAP OF PREDICTION MARKETS

Summary from the TLDR Crypto newsletter

Polymarket and Kalshi captured 88% of prediction markets' $41.8 billion 2025 volume with $18.7 billion and $18.0 billion respectively. Q3 volumes hit $3 billion, representing 5x growth from 2024, with October crossing $7.4 billion industry-wide as binary and categorical outcomes dominate over sports and scalar formats, with Base and Polygon gaining share for smoother, cheaper trading experiences. Smaller platforms matter for next-wave innovation, including new market formats, liquidity mechanisms, and UX models, despite current volume disparities, comparing the trajectory to early crypto exchanges. PredictionIndex.xyz launched public dashboards tracking total volume, 30-day volume, and 24-hour volume for each platform as the sector accelerates toward potential trillion-dollar annual industry status before the decade's end.