CIRCLE LOCKUP ENDS: WINNERS, LOSERS, AND 2026 M&A ODDS

Summary from the TLDR Crypto newsletter

With Circle's employee lockup ending, IPO investors and bankers are the clear winners, employees and long‑term holders are largely neutral as the price drifts back to its natural level, and retail and the company lose out. While earnings and lower rates suggest near‑term pressure, Circle's position as the No. 2 stablecoin issuer gives it M&A appeal that could lift shares in 2026 with roughly 50/50 odds of being acquired by a player like Coinbase, Robinhood, a large bank, or Visa/Mastercard.