FORECASTS OF AI & ECONOMIC GROWTH

Summary from the TLDR AI newsletter

Most economists forecast 0.1-1.5% annual excess growth through 2035, while AI insiders predict 3-30%. Most economists, though, assume that today's ChatGPT is essentially the ceiling of AI progress and that visions of a virtual AI coworker won't really materialize, but how is it possible that cheap, PhD-level intelligence wouldn't boost productivity? The forecasts imply that either AGI will be far less general than claimed or that adoption will be dramatically slower than historical technology diffusion. AI's 2024 economic footprint appears to be around 0.5% of GDP.