DEBUNKING THE SEASONALITY MYTH

Summary from the TLDR Crypto newsletter

Coinbase's institutional crypto research report maintains a bullish outlook for early Q4 2025, driven by resilient liquidity, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and supportive regulatory dynamics, with Bitcoin positioned for outperformance as Federal Reserve rate cuts are expected in September and October. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have evolved from early adoption into a competitive "player-versus-player" phase, with public DATs now holding over 1M BTC ($110B) and 4.9M ETH ($21.3B), though early mover premiums have dissipated as the market matures. The report conducts extensive statistical analysis debunking crypto seasonality myths, particularly the "September effect," using multiple methodologies, including Wilson confidence intervals, logistic regression, and out-of-sample predictions, to demonstrate that monthly calendar patterns are not statistically significant predictors of Bitcoin returns. Despite Bitcoin's historical weakness in six consecutive Septembers from 2017 to 2022, assuming each month has roughly the same odds as the long-term average outperforms all calendar-based trading approaches.