COMPUTE SCALING WILL SLOW DOWN DUE TO INCREASING LEAD TIMES

Summary from the TLDR AI newsletter

The era of rapid compute scaling that drove AI progress since 2020 is over. GPUs from large cloud providers are almost entirely saturated, and frontier labs are now racing to bring new data centers online and reserve as much chip production as they can. Scaling, and therefore investment, is hampered by physical reality and the years required to build more infrastructure, meaning incremental scaling is the only option ahead, despite headlines of massive upfront funding rounds.