ASSESSING NEAR-TERM ACCURACY IN THE EXISTENTIAL RISK PERSUASION TOURNAMENT

Summary from the TLDR AI newsletter

Expert forecasters and AI domain experts dramatically underestimated AI progress from 2022 to the present across multiple benchmarks, especially in mathematical reasoning. For the International Mathematical Olympiad, superforecasters and AI experts 8.6% expected models wouldn't achieve gold-level performance until 2030, which OpenAI and Google both achieved in July of this year.