PREDICTING OUR OWN DEMISE

Summary from the TLDR newsletter

Prediction markets don't provide better predictions about the future. The best, most efficient financial markets have standardized products, many participants, low transaction costs, and heterogeneous participants. Prediction markets lack participants with heterogeneous risk preferences. It's also possible for participants to manipulate some outcomes. Prediction markets are bad market design, and they induce bad incentives, so we should put the genie back in the box while there's still time.