IS THE "CONVICTION" GAME IN VC BS?

Summary from the TLDR Founders newsletter

Carta ran 20,000 simulations comparing two VC strategies and found something VCs don't want to hear. A "spray and pray" fund with 100 investments beats a "conviction" fund with 20 investments almost every time - 2.6x returns vs 2.1x, and 99.7% chance of not losing money vs 81.9%. Only the top 5% of funds do better with conviction. Yet VCs still concentrate because LPs love the story of genius stock-picking. The math says most VCs would do better admitting they can't predict winners and making more bets.