THE HODLER'S FALLACY

Summary from the TLDR Crypto newsletter

Crypto functions as an extractive arbitrage system rather than a traditional investment market, where HODLing rarely pays off – only 3.7% of tokens recover a 75% drawdown, and 86% of large-FDV launches plunge at least 75%. Altcoins largely underperform Bitcoin, and revenue-generating protocols like Hyperliquid, Maple, and Aave are exceptional outliers, not the rule. Venture capital struggles because tokens lack equity-like cash flows and favor early-stage edge that disappears as funds scale. True winners in crypto are market-neutral actors that systematically extract value regardless of price direction.