CIRCLE: IS IT STILL A BUY?

Summary from the TLDR Crypto newsletter

Circle's IPO exploded with a +168% first-day surge and +247% gain over 48 hours, marking the biggest first-day pop for a $1 billion+ IPO in three decades as institutional FOMO drove opening prices from $31 to over $103. By underpricing at $31 despite market demand near $83+, Circle forfeited $1.72 billion in capital, and its December 2025 lockup expiry looms as a source of potential insider selling pressure. At a $23.75 billion market cap and 152x earnings multiple, nearly 90% of revenue stems from USDC reserve interest, with Q1 2025 showing 58.5% revenue growth but 68.2% cost growth eroding margins. Although regulatory tailwinds, institutional confidence, and USDC's role in real-world asset settlement underpin a long-term bull case, scarce near-term catalysts and a premium valuation suggest limited asymmetric upside.